Several factors led to the rise in interest rates:
Significant supply of Treasury bonds by the US government.
Slowing demand for bonds from China and Japan.
Likelihood of a government shutdown.
Negative outlook for the US credit rating by major credit rating agencies.
In the minutes of the October 31st and November 1st meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, it was highlighted that they would consider tightening again if the progress toward the 2% target rate of inflation proves insufficient.
Many factors suggest an impending recession, including the inverted yield curve, the decline in the leading economic indicators for 19 consecutive months, a slowdown in China, and the cautious outlook from retail companies.
At The Family Office, we believe that the 60/40 portfolio strategy needs to be modernized. We recommend an allocation to alternative investments such as private credit, real estate, and private equity.
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